Tencor’s Newsletter

That Which Makes Also Unmakes: Rust Belt Dooms Trump's Third Presidential Bid; Both Congressional Chambers Swap Hands

Will Trend Acceleration Ironically Cause Statewide Mean Reversion?

Nov 3, 2024 • 

Tencor

October 2024

20 Days to Go, the 2024 Elections are Closer Than Ever

(Except the battle for US Senate)

Oct 16, 2024 • 

Tencor

1

US Senate Check-in: Four Weeks Out

Republicans hold an edge but haven't put Democrats away just yet

Oct 9, 2024 • 

Tencor

1

July 2024

The Tossup Bubble has Burst

Trump is the Clear Favorite to Win the Presidency as Americans Prepare to Celebrate Independence Day

Jul 3, 2024 • 

Tencor

June 2024

Pre-debate, Trump is the (narrow) Favorite to Win the Presidency

The race still feels "Tossupy," but almost any quantitative model will show a Trump advantage

Jun 27, 2024 • 

Tencor

May 2024

May Presidential Election Ratings Update

Not much has changed since January, but polls are becoming more predictive

May 26, 2024 • 

Tencor

2

3

January 2024

Preliminary 2024 Presidential Election Ratings

As always, the Presidency starts off as a Tossup. A lot of caveats, however.

Jan 31, 2024 • 

Tencor

2

November 2023

2023 New Jersey Legislative Elections Preview: Democrats Will Hold On, but Chamber Net Gains in Doubt

Will this year mark the death or revival of South Jersey Democrats?

Nov 7, 2023 • 

Tencor

1

2023 Mississippi State House Elections: Status Quo Reigns Supreme

But Republicans seem more likely to pick up seats than Democrats

Nov 4, 2023 • 

Tencor

October 2023

2023 Mississippi Senate Elections Preview: Low Stakes, Little Drama, but Intriguing Races

Substantial Partisan Turnover Seems Unlikely

Oct 28, 2023 • 

Tencor

1

June 2023

2023 New Jersey June Primary Outlook

As always, I suck at intros, so I won't write one if I don't need to.

Jun 4, 2023 • 

Tencor

November 2022