2023 New Jersey June Primary Outlook
As always, I suck at intros, so I won't write one if I don't need to.
LD-03 (D): A classic battle between the South Jersey Democratic machine and progressive insurgents is occurring in the 3rd district, where Democrats are still recovering from Senate President Steve Sweeney’s 2021 defeat. Despite its weakened standing in recent years and powerbroker George Norcross’ supposed “retirement” from politics, the machine is still operational and will likely come out on top. Former Assemblyman John Burzichelli leads a strong ticket consisting of Gloucester County Commissioner Heather Simmons and Ranch Hope CEO Dave Bailey. The progressive ticket consists of failed Congressional candidates Mario De Santis and Tanzie Youngblood along with political newcomer Robert Fitzpatrick. Further cementing the machine’s dominant position, Burzichelli’s bank account reads a 6-digit number while De Santis, who has a truly unfortunate last name for a Democratic candidate, sees his campaign in debt. Barring something truly unforeseeable, the “machine” will prevail yet again.
Projection: Very Likely Burzichelli/Simmons/Bailey.
LD-03 (R): To a national observer, the famed Ed the Trucker receiving a primary challenge may seem quite odd, but it is no surprise for state observers. Durr, for all his fame, has little to show for during his tenure in the Democratic-controlled legislature, which understandably doesn’t want to give the “grassroots conservative hero” a platform. This ineffectiveness along with poor relations in Trenton and back home have resulted in a series of primary challengers: first in the form of Salem County Commissioner Mickey Ostrum and now Assemblywoman Beth Sawyer. Sawyer has positioned herself as the candidate who can get things done for LD-03 and the electable option in the general election against Burzichelli. Thanks to a political alliance with neighboring 4th district candidates, Sawyer has a relatively favorable spot on the Gloucester ballot. The other big county in the district, Salem, doesn’t have a party line. But despite these breaks, Durr’s status as a political celebrity will be difficult to crack, especially in a Republican primary, and it’s hard to see him losing.
The other important factor lies down-ballot. Sawyer, who has no problems with fellow Assemblywoman Bethanne McCarthy Patrick, is leaving her to be, and as a result only recruited one candidate to run with her: Joseph Collins, the nephew of former Speaker Jack Collins. This has resulted in a notable gap in Sawyer’s line on the ballot, which is a pretty notable disadvantage. Collins, who has quite a significant family connection, has failed to effectively align himself with the former Speaker on the campaign trail. The era of Jack Collins was also more than two decades ago, by now a distant memory in voters’ memories. Therefore, Hopewell Township Committeeman Tom Tedesco, who is on Durr’s ticket, is the favorite to claim the open Assembly seat as Durr and McCarthy Patrick look headed for victory.
Projection: Leans Durr/Tedesco, Very Likely McCarthy Patrick
LD-04 (R): The battle between Gloucester County Commissioner Nick DeSilvio and former Washington Township Councilman Chris Del Borrello has been one of the most, if not the most nasty primary race this cycle, with both candidates trading personal attacks and clearly loathing the simple presence of their opponent. The race has also evolved into a proxy battle between powerful forces in the South Jersey Republican apparatus, as the likes of Gloucester GOP Chair Jackie Vigilante, State Sen. Ed Durr, and Ocean GOP Chair George Gilmore have found themselves on the opposite side of Atlantic GOP Chair Don Purdy, State Sen./Cumberland GOP Chair Mike Testa, and Monmouth GOP Chair Shaun Golden.
The biggest player in the game, however, is the Union of Operating Engineers. Del Borrello’s Assembly running mates include Amanda Esposito and, more importantly, former Buena Council President Matt Walker, who serves on the Operating Engineers’ executive board. Walker’s presence on the ticket has been one of the greatest boons for Team Del Borrello, as the union has poured north of $280k into the LD-04 race, giving his slate a huge financial advantage over DeSilvio’s team, and the potential to be competitive in the financial game against the South Jersey Democratic Machine, should Del Borrello make it to the general election.
You can effectively divide the 4th district primary into 4 geographical sections (with the 2021 Ciattarelli vote as the estimated vote baseline):
Camden: 42% of estimated votes
Atlantic: 6% of estimated votes
Washington Township (Gloucester): 25% of estimated votes
Rest of Gloucester: 27% of estimated votes
Unless something odd happens with the party line, Del Borrello will win the two Atlantic towns in the district by a landslide and take first place in Camden, where he currently lives. The real question is what will happen in DeSilvio’s native Gloucester. While the Commissioner has the party line in theory, his advantage has been significantly reduced following Del Borrello assembling a full Gloucester opposition slate along with drawing Column A. The ballot in Gloucester looks to be evenly matched while DeSilvio has been banished to Ballot Siberia in Atlantic and Camden. In fact, a filing error in Atlantic has DeSilvio bracketed with another Assembly candidate instead of his running mates.
Washington Township will undoubtedly be the top battleground of the night. DeSilvio must win Gloucester by a strong margin to win districtwide, which means he almost certainly needs to win or at least get close in Washington, where Del Borrello served as Councilman and retains political ties through family connections. A win in Washington Township for Del Borrello and expected margins out of Atlantic and Camden Counties would lead DeSilvio’s path to be incredibly narrow.
The race is expected to be close, with both Senate candidates having a solid shot of advancing to a competitive general election against Democratic Assemblyman Paul Moriarty. Gloucester is probably where most Republicans will cast their ballots, which is good news for hometown favorite Nick DeSilvio, but Del Borrello has both a structural and financial advantage to compensate.
Projection: Tilt Del Borrello/Walker/Esposito
LD-12 (R): Home to party-switching Senator Sam Thompson, the 12th should have been relatively quiet after party leaders cleared the field for Old Bridge Mayor Owen Henry. But Salvatore Giordano, the Old Bridge Board of Education President, is running a primary campaign for Assembly, which in itself is kinda odd given that both incumbent Assemblymen Robert Clifton and Alex Sauickie are staying put and the Senate seat is open. Old Bridge is home to a large chunk of Republican primary voters - about 1 in 4 - but Gioradno’s campaign is bankrupt and neither Clifton nor Sauickie have given voters a reason to fire them.
Projection: Very Likely Clifton/Sauickie.
LD-14 (R): None of the Republican Assembly candidates here have filed campaign finance reports with the ELEC, which is pretty weird and not great for GOP chances here in November. Attorney Adam Elias and former Hightstown Councilwoman Skye Gilmartin have the party line against 2019 and 2021 nominee Bina Shah, who is understandably frustrated after being dumped off the line the instant state Republicans decided to put the district on the playing board for November. Frustration does not equate to votes, however, and what looks like an unserious campaign is an extreme longshot to beat the party line, although the party-endorsed candidates aren’t running the most serious of campaigns either.
Projection: Very Likely Elias/Gilmartin
LD-18 (D): Longtime legislator Patrick Diegnan (D) is not new to primary challenges. In 2021, he turned away Edison School Board vice president Mohin Patel by a solid 75-25 margin, and things don’t point toward a different result this year. His challenger is Christopher Binetti, who is best known for arguing that Italians are discriminated against and suffering a “massive underrepresentation crisis” because they don’t have civil rights protections. It seems unlikely that his stance on this issue will change after Tuesday’s results, as he will not be adding to Italian representation in the legislature.
Projection: Safe Diegnan.
LD-19 (D): A similar longshot challenge is being staged in the neighboring 19th against State Sen. Joe Vitale in the form of former NJ Department of Children and Families Supervisor Michelle Burwell. This looks like a slightly more serious challenge than the one being mounted by Binetti, but there has been little indication that Vitale is in any trouble here, especially as Burwell will not have any running mates on the ballot.
Projection: Safe Vitale.
LD-20 (D): The Democratic primary in the 20th district is, weirdly enough, an extension of a local race. The heated primary for Mayor of Roselle sees incumbent Mayor Donald Shaw attempting to turn back a strong challenge from former Assemblyman Jamel Holley. Holley recruited a full slate of candidates to fill his ballot, but he is the only candidate on that slate with a chance of winning. Holley’s ticket has strength in Roselle, which is home to about 1 in 6 Democratic primary voters, but that is nowhere near enough to scratch incumbent Senator Joe Cryan, Assemblyman Reginald Atkins, or Assemblywoman Annette Quijano. Cryan himself turned away a challenge from Holley in 2021 by 30 points, and a much less serious challenge won’t be enough to put him on alert. Roselle’s mayoral race is heated, but the legislative contest will end with little drama.
Projection: Safe Cryan/Atkins/Quijano
LD-23 (D): The solidly Republican 23rd district will be hosting an odd Democratic primary this cycle, with pro-Trump perennial candidate Roger Bacon running under the “Drain the Swamp in Trenton Now” slogan. That’s a curious move given Trenton is controlled by Democrats and he’s running in a Democratic primary. Party-endorsed Denise King is headed for a landslide victory and will face Republican Senator Douglas Steinhardt in November.
Projection: Safe King.
LD-24 (R): The Sussex-based 24th is arguably the most conservative district in the state, and a brutal primary was inevitable the instant all three legislators in the district announced their retirement. Assemblyman Parker Space is the uncontested choice for Senate after former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan dropped out, but the Assembly race has only gotten more ferocious as the campaign heated up. While five candidates are running on paper, former Congressional candidate Robert Kovic is a nonfactor and will finish fifth.
The battle lines in the district have been drawn between the slates of Sussex County Commissioner Dawn Fantasia/Chester Township Mayor Mike Inganamort and Lafayette Board of Education President Josh Aikens/Warren County Commissioner Jason Sarnoski. Sussex County, which will cast about 2/3 of the Republican primary votes, is the main battleground. What makes the 24th district primary so different is that Sussex does not have a “party line,” meaning that the party-endorsed candidates (in this case Fantasia and Inganamort) don’t have an advantage in the ballot design. They do, however, have the party line in Morris County, which should cast about 30% of primary votes, while Aikens and Sarnoski have the line in the tiny Warren portion of the district, which should cast about 5% of primary votes.
Dawn Fantasia, as the only candidate who has been elected countywide in Sussex, is the nominal favorite, but the Aikens/Sarnoski ticket is well aware and has positioned themselves as the more conservative options in the race, attacking Fantasia for raising the gas tax, for example, during their debate hosted by the New Jersey Globe. Sussex County has historically been quite fond of the more conservative candidates in primaries, opting for Steve Lonegan over Chris Christie in 2009 and Phil Rizzo over Tom Kean Jr. in 2022, for instance, so this isn’t a bad bet by the underdog ticket. But Fantasia and Inganamort have some big advantages: the full support of Assemblyman Parker Space, who is the sole Senate candidate in LD-24; the Morris County line, and the backing of the Sussex GOP. Even without the “party line,” organizational support still counts for something, and Fantasia is much more deeply rooted in Sussex County than the other candidates. The better bet, even if slightly, goes to the Sussex County Commissioner.
Projection: Tilt Fantasia/Inganamort
LD-26 (R): Even though two full slates are running against each other, it might be easier to analyze this district in three separate pieces. Assemblyman Jay Webber, who still represents a plurality of the new 26th following redistricting, is the clear favorite to take first in the four-way Assembly contest. Former Parsippany Mayor Robert Peluso, who is trailing the rest of the ticket badly in terms of fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition, has become an afterthought and is likely to take fourth.
Former Assemblywoman BettyLou DeCroce, a decade-long lawmaker before losing her seat in a primary two years ago, is probably the “off-the-line” legislative candidate with the best chance of winning this year. The battle for second will be between DeCroce and 25th District Assemblyman Brian Bergen, who swapped districts with 26th District Assemblyman Christian Barranco following redistricting. This has made Bergen a relatively easy target; only about 15% of Republican primary votes in this district are expected to come from the old 25th, and DeCroce, who was Assemblywoman just two years ago, arguably has stronger name recognition with the electorate.
DeCroce has proven she can compete effectively without the line. In 2021, she took a relatively strong 45.4% of the two-way vote in Morris against Barranco despite losing the county endorsement. But Bergen still likely has an advantage. Passaic County, where DeCroce relied on to almost deliver an upset victory in 2021, is now backing Bergen, and the county’s ballot design this year is not a favorable one for the challenging slate. DeCroce will likely need to win Morris, which is still an uphill climb without the line, and manage to win it by a big enough margin to counter Bergen’s likely advantage in Passaic County. The former Assemblywoman has a chance, but the safer bet still lies with the organization.
In the Senate primary, Senator Joseph Pennacchio, one of the more conservative members of the chamber for North Jersey standards, is facing a strong challenge from Morris County Commissioner Tom Mastrangelo. Mastrangelo has proven with his 2022 primary that he can win without organizational support when he defeated an organization-backed challenge from Mendham Township Committeewoman Sarah Neibart by a 52-48 margin. Neibart, however, was a relative moderate and thus an easy target in a primary, while Pennacchio’s more conservative record is harder to attack. Mastrangelo has used Pennacchio’s vote on the 2019-20 budget as evidence of the Senator’s more “liberal” stances, but Pennacchio has responded by saying the budget received bipartisan support and rare praise from then-President Trump. Pennacchio doesn’t have Bergen’s problem of unfamiliar territory, and, like Bergen, has one key advantage in this race: Passaic County. Even if Mastrangelo wins Morris County by 4 points again, which seems unlikely against an incumbent with the county line, Pennacchio is expected to win Passaic - 18% of the district electorate - by a large margin. This gives Pennacchio and his slate an important leg-up as they look to be the incumbent slate with the greatest chance of losing. (Unless you include Nia Gill)
Projection: Leans Pennacchio, Likely Webber, Tilt Bergen
LD-27 (D): The most competitive Democratic primary of the cycle between two well-established Senators is turning out to be a dud. With his high name recognition and endorsements from basically everyone, former Governor Richard Codey has emerged as a clear favorite to return to Trenton for four more years. The cash situation looks quite daunting for his opponent, Senator Nia Gill, who is getting outspent 6-1 and has less than $6,000 in the bank. The exit of Assembly candidate Frank Kasper denied Gill a full slate of candidates to effectively compete, and a lackluster campaign operation by Team Gill is only putting the nail in the coffin. Assemblyman John McKeon and Alixon Collazos-Gill, the wife of Essex County commissioner Brendan Gill, are running on Codey’s slate and are favored to win Assembly seats against two unbracketed opponents: Eve Robinson, who is running with Nia Gill, and former Assemblyman Craig Stanley, who is running by himself.
Projection: Likely Codey/McKeon/Collazos-Gill
LD-28 (D): The retirement of Assemblywoman Mila Jasey opened up a primary between Deputy Essex County Clerk Garnet Hall, who is backed by the Essex County Democratic organization, and former Maplewood Mayor Frank McGehee, who is not running with anyone. At this point, you should know the drill: The organization-backed Hall is the heavy favorite to win. McGehee’s hometown of Maplewood has the potential to deliver up to 1 in 4 primary voters, but that alone is probably not enough to defy the powerful Essex Democratic line. There is only one challenger to the organizational-backed slate, so Assemblywoman Cleopatra Tucker is a shoo-in for reelection, although she probably would’ve been anyways even if there were two challengers.
Projection: Safe Tucker, Very Likely Hall
LD-31 (D): The powerful Hudson Democratic machine has little to worry about this year at the legislative level. Assemblywoman Angela McKnight is leading their ticket, with Assemblyman William Sampson and Hudson County Democratic vice chair Barbara McCann Stamato as her running mates. Progressives are running Michael Griffin and Shanelle Smith, but neither of them has yet to file campaign finance reports with the ELEC, which isn’t necessarily a great look for the seriousness of their campaigns. Hudson Democrats and 2025 Gubernatorial candidate Steve Fulop are looking to flex their muscles, and they will almost certainly succeed in the heart of Jersey City.
Projection: Safe McKnight/Sampson/Stamato