US Senate Check-in: Four Weeks Out

Republicans hold an edge but haven't put Democrats away just yet

In the finals of the Senate Poker Tournament, Player Blue did not fold their 2-7 starting hand and instead decided to up a fight — a much better one than expected — against Player Red’s pocket aces, with the flop containing a 7 and the turn not dealing any finishing blows. But with the river yet to be revealed, Player Blue remains a serious underdog and will lose unless the last card is a 2 or a 7.

Democrats are Player Blue and Republicans are Player Red in this game for Senate control. While the GOP started out with a flawless deck of cards, they have not been able to put Democrats away, though they still obtain the clear advantage going into the final card.

Republicans have not completely flopped on their fantastic draw, however, and the tipping-point state now looks much better for them than it did in August. Democrats, on the other hand, utilized their candidate quality and spending advantages to put some swing state Senate races out of the realm of competitiveness — although others have come online.

Republicans have clear advantages in races that would win them 51 Senate seats, making them the clear favorite for US Senate control this year. But it isn’t impossible for Democrats to mount a comeback as they contemplate improbable victories against Republican incumbents in red states.

Without further ado, these are my Senate ratings with four weeks remaining in this campaign:

ONE TRUE TOSSUP (OHIO)

Senator Sherrod Brown (D) continues to narrowly lead in polls against Republican opponent Bernie Moreno (R), but Ohio elections are notorious for their late-breaking nature (usually toward Republicans) and Republican outside groups have been outspending Democratic outside groups by an eye-watering $100 million. Brown is running against political gravity in a state Trump is likely to win comfortably on the top of the ticket, but he is running close to the 50% mark he needs to feel somewhat comfortable. Unless we see polls break late for Moreno, this race is likely to remain the closest on the map. TOSSUP

DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT IN TROUBLE (MONTANA)

Senator Jon Tester (D) already looked like an underdog even back when he was leading in the polls, as it seemed like the political gravity in a Trump +16 state would inevitably weigh him down in the end. The polls now back up that idea, as Republican challenger Tim Sheehy (R) leads in a string of polls released in September, often by mid-to-high single digits. It isn’t impossible for Tester to win, but things are looking dire. LEANS REPUBLICAN (FLIP)

IS THIS THE REAL TIPPING-POINT? (TEXAS)

With Montana looking shaky, much of the Democratic discussion has shifted to whether or not to spend their resources in longer-shot races like Texas or Florida. Texas, in particular, no longer looks like a longer shot than Montana. While outside Democratic spending has been sparse, Democratic candidate Colin Allred has been heavily outspending unpopular Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and with a $30+ million fundraising quarter during Q3, Allred should have the closing power to finish the race on two feet and to not get drowned by a huge spending disparity.

Cruz has been underrunning Trump in the polls by about 2-3% in the polls, and while that shouldn’t be a fatal underperformance in Texas, if Trump underperforms his 2020 winning margin of 5.6% this year, Cruz could be in real trouble. For now though, Cruz has the great advantage of partisan lean on his side, and it should carry him over. LEANS REPUBLICAN

THE RUST BELT BATTLEGROUNDS (MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA)

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are deadlocked in these battlegrounds, with Harris perhaps with a slight edge in polling, but the Democratic Senate candidates have consistently run ahead of Harris’ margins in these states. While their overperformance has narrowed since the high single-digit peaks in the summer, a 2-4% buffer from the presidential ballot (as the polls are showing) should allow them to hang on. It should noted though that Republicans, especially in Michigan and Wisconsin, are closing strong, bulstered by an influx of late outside spending from interested groups. These races are definitely still online as probable GOP opportunities. LEANS DEMOCRATIC

SUN BELT TRIAGE (ARIZONA, NEVADA)

While Trump is running stronger in the sun belt than the rust belt, at least in the polls, Republican Senate candidates have been unable to close the gap against their Democratic counterparts. Democrats Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) frequently post double-digit margins in the polls against poor GOP recruits Kari Lake (R-AZ) and Sam Brown (R-AZ), and outside GOP groups seem to have diverted their spending to the rust belt battlegrounds instead. Senate Democrats should sweep the southwest battlegrounds barring a disaster for the polling industry in November. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

WHAT IS GOING ON HERE? (NEBRASKA)

The most surprising Senate-related development of this cycle is the introduction of solidly red Nebraska onto the Senate map, with Republican Senator Deb Fischer caught napping and independent Dan Osborn seemingly competitive in the limited polling available. While independent candidates like Evan McMullin (Utah 2022) and Greg Orman (Kansas 2014) both lost nominally competitive races, they both overperformed their state’s partisan lean by double digits in unfavorable midterm environments. A similar overperformance by Osborn would put the Nebraska Senate race in single-digit territory, and while I’m doubtful his polling strength will last for the remainder of the campaign, there is simply much more uncertainty surrounding campaigns involving an independent vs just another old Democrat against Republican election. Thus, this race warrants a spot on the board, at least for now. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

WE CAN’T FORGET ABOUT… (FLORIDA, MARYLAND, NEW MEXICO)

Florida is probably the most competitive of the bunch (although it honestly may not turn out that way). Republican incumbent Rick Scott, while loathed by those in Washington, has more or less ran even in the polls with Trump, who should win this state pretty comfortably. Neither party is treating this race as especially competitive, despite some late noise that Democrats might make a play here. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) hasn’t made any mistakes in his Maryland Senate run, but the state, which is likely to vote for Harris by more than 30 points, is simply too blue for any federal Republican to win. The margin for Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks is about 8 points in the polling aggregate, and while that points toward the most competitive Maryland federal election since 2006, Hogan needs a miracle to pull off a victory. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

The last of the “on the radar” races is New Mexico, where the great Domenici dynasty is looking to return to office in the state. But while she has the right name, GOP candidate Nella Domenici has not gotten the amount of resources needed to unseat completely uncontroversial incumbent Martin Heinrich (D), and she likely needed Biden to stay in the race to have had any chance. Harris will win this state comfortably, and there is no sign of this seat being competitive now. It will be interesting to see how many votes Domenici’s name gets her. SAFE DEMOCRATIC