2023 Mississippi State House Elections: Status Quo Reigns Supreme
But Republicans seem more likely to pick up seats than Democrats
Thanks to a combination of self geographic sorting, statewide partisan lean, and gerrymandering, the Mississippi State House will see very little competition this year. I only have 5 districts identified as potentially competitive, and even that may an overestimate. So let’s get dive through this quickly.
HD-12: This is probably the most competitive race in the state, sans the wild-card HD-64 contest. Incumbent Republican Representative Clay Deweese barely won his first election in 2019 and his district hasn’t changed significantly in redistricting (although it did get 2 points redder). With Democrat Donna Niewiaroski not running a skeletal campaign, this race will probably be decently close yet again. Deweese does now hold a few key advantages that he didn’t in 2019, like incumbency, a slightly redder district, and a Governor Tate Reeves who will probably (although not assuredly) overperform 2019’s topline.
HD-12 Projection: Leans Republican
HD-45: This is on the board more as a hedge as anything else (I am not very fluent with Mississippi politics, for one, so uncertainty is necessary). Democrat Keith Jackson should win this Biden +12 district, but 2019 Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jim Hood (D) won this district by less than what the 2019 statewide swing would suggest, and a disaster scenario where Democrats collapse with Black turnout would see this seat in the competitive territory. 2022 Congressional candidate Michael Cassidy, who is definitely one of the more unique political figures you’d see out there, is the Republican nominee, and there will be an independent in the race in Trent Rickles. Not really sure how Rickles is gonna factor in this, if he will at all, but he’s one of the reasons why I’m being a bit more cautious in this race.
HD-45 Projection: Likely Democratic
HD-56: An open seat that Donald Trump won by 17% in 2020 but Tate Reeves only won by 1% in 2019, I felt like this seat warranted a spot on the table for discussion. But local newspaper owner Clay Mansell (R) is seen as a clear favorite through both district partisanship and fundraising over Democrat Sharon Moman, and I expect most Republican legislative candidates to overperform Reeves on the top of the ballot, with this being no exception.
HD-56 Projection: Likely Republican
HD-64: This is definitely one of the more interesting legislative races you’ll see this year, with an Independent incumbent in Shanda Yates running for reelection against Republican Amile Wilson. Yates was first elected as a Democrat in 2021 after beating Republican incumbent Bill Denny 51% to 49%, but gave up her party affiliation after caucus backlash over her vote for the MS GOP’s Congressional redistricting plan. This is a hard race to forecast given Yates’ independent affiliation, but she should still keep a vast majority of Democrats on her side against a Republican candidate through negative polarization, and the fact that Brandon Presley (D) will likely win this seat in the concurrent Gubernatorial election (Hood won it by 18) along with Yates’ fundraising advantage is enough evidence for me to tip the scales in the incumbent’s favor.
HD-64 Projection: Leans Independent
HD-91: Another one of those “hedge” seats akin to HD-45, four-term Democratic incumbent Robert Evans is a clear (perhaps even prohibitive) favorite to win, but the district’s Biden +9 topline result and rural nature means that it’s not totally immune to a “Louisiana disaster,” thus why I am being a bit cautious. A victory for Republican Steve Moreman would definitely seal high spot on the upset table for 2023 legislative elections.
HD-91 Projection: Likely Democratic
And those are all the potentially competitive seats. In the future, left-trending DeSoto County seats like HDs 6, 7, and 20 may land themselves on the table, but its downballot Republican nature solidifies GOP standing, at least for now. If all above projections hold true, it means Republicans will gain 2 seats from what they currently hold, Democrats will lose 1, and Independents will also lose 1 seat, for a small net change in favor of the MS GOP.
All other projections are shown on the first map.